The Science of Leadership with Harvard Professor David Deming: Why the Best Leaders May NOT Be Who You Think

Jacob Morgan
6 min readOct 7, 2024

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We’ve all been taught that great leaders are the ones who step up eagerly, raise their hand, and take charge. But what if the very qualities we associate with leadership — ambition, eagerness, and initiative — are the ones that make people less effective in the role? Surprising new research suggests that those who are most eager to lead might actually perform worse than those who simply fall into the role. In a world where leadership is critical to success, this could change how we choose and develop our leaders.

In a recent episode of Future Ready Leadership, Professor David Deming from Harvard Kennedy School shares groundbreaking insights from his research that challenge traditional ideas of leadership. His study reveals that leaders chosen based on their strong desire to lead often underperform compared to those randomly assigned to the role. If you’ve ever had a manager who seemed perfect for the job but didn’t live up to expectations, this might explain why.

Listen to the episode here on Apple Podcast & leave a review!

Overconfidence: The Leadership Trap You Didn’t See Coming

One of the key findings from Professor Deming’s study is the negative impact of overconfidence on leadership. Many leaders believe that their ability to lead is obvious and undeniable, but this overconfidence can actually backfire. Leaders who are overly sure of themselves often misread their team’s emotions and needs, leading to poor decisions and disconnected management.

Instead of overconfidence, emotional intelligence (EQ) becomes essential. Great leaders can sense the emotional dynamics in a room and respond appropriately. EQ is not about being overly empathetic or soft; it’s about recognizing the signals your team is sending and adapting your approach accordingly. Leaders who excel in EQ are better able to motivate their team, manage conflicts, and create a productive work environment where employees feel understood and valued.

The Power of Economic Decision-Making

Another surprising insight from the episode is the importance of economic decision-making in leadership. According to Deming’s research, the ability to allocate resources and manage time effectively is one of the strongest predictors of leadership success. Leaders who excel in this area are skilled at assessing their team’s strengths and weaknesses, making sure that each person is assigned tasks that suit their capabilities.

The best leaders are strategic delegators. Instead of trying to do everything themselves or micromanage, they focus on optimizing their team’s performance by placing people in roles where they can thrive. Deming emphasizes that leadership isn’t about being the most talented person in the room — it’s about knowing how to make the best use of your resources and team.

Listen to the episode here on Apple Podcast & leave a review!

Why Randomly Selected Leaders Outperform Eager Volunteers

Perhaps the most counterintuitive finding in the study is that randomly selected leaders often outperform those who actively seek leadership roles. This turns the common belief that ambition and eagerness are the key traits of good leaders on its head. Deming’s research shows that leaders chosen simply for their desire to lead tend to perform worse than those who were randomly assigned.

This finding raises critical questions for organizations: Are they promoting the right people? Are they rewarding ambition over ability? By relying on who’s most vocal about wanting leadership roles, organizations might be missing out on the individuals who have the real skills to excel in management. It’s a call for companies to rethink how they identify and develop leadership talent.

Leadership is evolving rapidly — are you keeping up? Each year, I engage with and analyze the insights of leading executives from companies like Microsoft, IBM, and Virgin Group, uncovering the strategies that drive their success. This exclusive PDF distills the top five leadership hacks used by these world-renowned leaders. Discover what sets these leaders apart and how you can apply their breakthrough tactics to elevate your leadership in 2024 and beyond.

https://training.thefutureorganization.com/5-leadership-hacks-from-the-world-s-most-successful-leaders

Actionable Strategies for Building Better Leaders

So, how can organizations apply these insights to build more effective leaders? Here are some strategies based on Professor Deming’s findings:

  • Develop Emotional Intelligence (EQ): Provide opportunities for leaders to improve their emotional intelligence. Encourage active listening, empathy, and self-awareness through training programs and feedback. Leaders who are emotionally attuned to their team will create more cohesive and motivated teams.
  • Prioritize Decision-Making Skills: Give leaders tasks that challenge their decision-making abilities. Create opportunities where they must allocate resources or delegate responsibilities strategically. This will sharpen their ability to manage teams effectively under pressure.
  • Rethink Leadership Selection: Don’t rely on volunteers or those who simply express a desire to lead. Use assessments, simulations, or data to evaluate potential leaders based on their decision-making and emotional intelligence, rather than just their ambition.
  • Create Opportunities for Leadership Development: Build structures where leadership skills can be developed and tested before formal promotions. Rotational programs, mentorship, and leadership simulations can help identify those who possess the right skills, not just the loudest voices.

Listen to the episode here on Apple Podcast & leave a review!

Time to Rethink Leadership

Leadership isn’t just about stepping up or raising your hand but about having the skills to guide a team effectively. Professor David Deming’s research challenges traditional ideas of what makes a good leader and offers new insights into how organizations can choose better leaders. By focusing on emotional intelligence, decision-making, and strategic delegation, companies can build stronger leadership teams that perform better over the long term.

To explore these findings in greater depth, listen to the full episode with Professor David Deming, where he dives into the science of leadership and shares practical advice on how to rethink leadership selection and development.

Listen to the episode here on Apple Podcast & leave a review!

🎧 Watch on YouTube

Leadership is evolving rapidly — are you keeping up? Each year, I engage with and analyze the insights of leading executives from companies like Microsoft, IBM, and Virgin Group, uncovering the strategies that drive their success. This exclusive PDF distills the top five leadership hacks used by these world-renowned leaders. Discover what sets these leaders apart and how you can apply their breakthrough tactics to elevate your leadership in 2024 and beyond.

https://training.thefutureorganization.com/5-leadership-hacks-from-the-world-s-most-successful-leaders

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Jacob Morgan

4x Best-Selling Author, Speaker, & Futurist. Founder of FutureOfWorkUniversity.com. Exploring Leadership, Employee Experience, & The Future of Work